Decision Theory

1. Decisions and Higher-Order Knowledge (forthcoming in Nôus). Penultimate draft.

The paper is about how one can avoid the consequence of having to bet one's life on a proposition one is certain about. The proposal is that decisions about higher level goods require higher-order knowledge.


1. Quinean Updates: In Defense of Two Dogmas (forthcoming in the Journal of Philosophy, with B. Pickel).

Details soon to follow.

2. Peer Disagreement: A Call for the Revision of Prior Probabilities (Dialectica 2015, with S. Rosenkranz). Penultimate draft.

This paper asks which belief revision policy is best in response to peer disagreement.

3. A Note on Comparative Probability (Erkenntnis 2012, with N. Haverkamp). Penultimate draft.

The paper is about the link between positive probability and possibility. It addresses an argument by Williamson to the effect that this link cannot be upheld by looking at a way of getting it in a weak comparative framework for probability.

4. The Dynamics of Indexical Belief (Erkenntnis 2010). Penultimate draft.

The paper is about the Sleeping Beauty problem. It searches for a way of extending the Bayesian framework to indexical beliefs. The thirders solution is predicted.


1. Counterfactuals and Probability (OUP 2017). Look inside (via Amazon).

The book looks at how counterfactuals are evaluated probabilistically and how one might best account for the phenomena semantically.

2. Counterfactuals and Arbitrariness (Mind 2014). Penultimate draft.

The paper is about credences in counterfactuals and how to best account for them semantically. The suggestion is that we may be able to explain them as ordinary credences in a proposition if we modify standard semantics by employing instead of a universal quantifier ranging over a set of relevant antecedent-worlds the epsilon-operator which arbitrarily selects one of those worlds.

3. A Note on Two Theorems by Adams and McGee (The Review of Symbolic Logic 2009). Penultimate draft.

The paper is about the possibility of having a three(or many)-valued logic for conditionals which accords with Adams's logic for conditionals.

Epistemic Modals

1. Wondering What Might Be (PhilStudies 2010). Penultimate draft.

The paper looks at a possible way of how indicative conditionals might be linked to epistemic modals. Malte Willer has replied to this paper, and I have responded to his reply (penultimate draft). 

2. Epistemic Modals and Informational Consequence (Synthese 2010). Penultimate draft.

The paper concerns the treatment of epistemic modals by Yalcin (2007). In particular, it takes a closer look at the resulting logic of epistemic modals. 

3. What Might Be and What Might Have Been (in a Volume on Strawson, with B. Schnieder and A. Steinberg). Penultimate draft.

The paper is about Strawson's theory of modals. 


1. Grounding Mental Causation (Synthese 2016, with T. Kroedel). Penultimate draft.

In this paper, we apply the notion of grounding to the problem of mental causation. 

2. Chance and Actuality (Philosophical Quarterly 2011). Penultimate draft.

The paper is about a little puzzle involving objective versus subjective chances of 'actually'-sentences.